Opinion: a backward-looking budget that looks supremely political

This blog is based on Hugh Mackenzie's opinion paper.

Through the 2009 budget, Stephen Harper showed that he is only interested in meeting the political imperatives he imposed on himself in the November budget. Stephen Harper is oblivious of the fact that what Canadians really need is a budget that can effectively response to the current economic crisis.

Hugh Mackenzie identifies three key questions that will evaluate the budget's effectiveness:

• Is the fiscal stimulus it offers big enough?
• Does it put the additional funding in the right places?
• How does it position Canada to participate in inevitably changed economy that will emerge as the economic downturn reverse itself?
  

Hugh Mackenzie believes that the 2009 budget does not answer the questions above.

First of all, the fiscal stimulus the budget offers is not big enough at all. Hugh Mackenzie calculates that the budget's actual stimulus is only about 1.3 per cent of Canada's GDP, which is a considerably small amount of money among major industrial nations. This 1.3 percentage is barely two-thirds of 2 per cent suggested by the International Monetary Fund as an appropriate fiscal response. This means that it will take a longer period of time than it is necessary for Canada to go over this economic crisis.

Secondly, the additional funding is not put in the right places. Broad-based tax cuts do not make sense. Broad-based tax cuts will reduce the fiscal capacity which will make it difficult for Canada to overcome deficit, caused by the economic crisis, in the future.

Third, the budget is backward-looking; it does not prepare Canada for the future where the nation will confront inevitably changed economy after this economic crisis. With this budget in action, Canada will confront difficult times once again when other countries are moving forward.

Opinion: I agree with Hugh Mackenzie's opinion that the 2009 budget does not reflect what is necessary for Canadians, whom the government is supposed to serve. The budget does not give answers to the questions that are being asked by Canadians who were thrown into hardship with an onset of this economic crisis. I believe it is most important to balance out direct and indirect plans. Direct plans will support people or businesses who are struck by the economic crisis and need help to go over it. The indirect plans will establish fundamental sectors of economy such as new energy, and transportation. The indirect plans will help Canada prepared for the future when the country will have to survive in the changed economy. As well, I hope the Canadian government should come up with ways to relieve its people and reassure them that they can and will go through this economic crisis together as a whole. I hope the Canadian government can proudly oppose to Hugh Mackenzie who said, "It is also becoming obvious that what's good for Stephen Harper politically is not necessarily in the best interests of the Canadians he is supposed to be serving".

Reaction to Throne Speech

The Parliament reopened with the throne speech delivered by Governor General Michaelle Jean. The Speech from the throne started with a calling for cooperation from Canadians, "In these uncertain times, when the world is threatened by a struggling economy, it is imperative that we work together, that we stand beside one another and that we strive for greater solidarity."

The Speech was given in order to give direction to Canada's future in this difficult period of time when the nation is struggling with a serious economic crisis and the government is in danger of losing its position to a Liberal-NDP coaltion.

The Conservative government said it will "spend what is necessary" on an economic stimulus plan to revive the ailing economy. The Speech promised direct federal investment in infrastructure, action to ensure easier access to credit for business and consumers; and support for the ailing forestry, manufuacturing, automotive, tourism and agricultural sectors.

The Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is careful in making further actions before he actually sees the budget, which will be announced tomorrow. He said he will consult with advisers and caucus tomorrow before revealing whether the Liberals will defeat the government. Ignatieff said that the current governemnt has already lost trust and that they could restore their trust in eyes of other parties and general Canadian only by showing their ability to rescue Canada out of the prevailing economic difficulties, "The stubbron reality is that there's a problem of trust."

Opinion: I believe that the conservative government has the very last chance to earn people's trust. The indiffrence and ignorance the current government has shown in their previous action plans have annoyed Canadian to the worst. If you take a look at cases of some countries who have successfully gone through their Depression time, you could easily see that the government stimulated economy by driving spending. This could be risky as the government should go into deficit. However, in such a tough economic time we definitely need a leader who sees what is needed and who is brave enough to lead the whole nation to fight through the risk. Tomorrow, we will find out whether or not Harper will be the leader.

Obama Reverses Key Bush Security Policies

After a number of oppositions towards Guantanamo Bay detention camp during his campaign, President Obama, in his first day of his presidency, signed executive orders to close down the secret prison in Cuba and to ban all the coercive interrogation methods within a year.

President Obama said, "We intend to win this fight. We are going to win it on our own terms."

His actions have won approval from many human rights groups, who said that the actions will restore the country's morality in eyes of other countries. There is no question that the action was a significant step towards re-ruling the country's methods for dealing with terrorism suspects. However, there are some questions that have not been answered in the White House's orders. The questions are: What should be done with terrorists who cannot be tried in American courts? Should some interrogation methods remain secret to keep Al Qaeda from training to resist them? How can the United States make sure prisoners transferred to other countries will not be tortured?

There is likely to be debate within the White House to answer those questions. John D. Huston, a retried admiral and law school dean, said that closing the Guantanamo prison and banning coercive interrogation methods "is the right thing to do morally, diplomatically, militarily and constitutionally." On the other hand, Representative Peter Hoekstra of Michigan said that the orders to close down the prison "place hope ahead of reality -- it sets an objective without a plan to get there."

Opinion: I personally believe that the President Obama has done a right thing. The United States has done a tremendous amount of international works to establish peace and justice in the world. Thus, the coercive interogation methods in the prison will damage the United States' reputation as the world's leading power that demands and supports justice. However, as Peter Hoekstra pointed out, I think it was a little bit of a rush in making such a serious decision. I have read another article that clearly showed how risky and dangerous it could be to shut down the prison without a thorough plan to get to the positve end. According to the aritcle a man, who was released from the Guantanamo Bay camp, has become a leader of Al Qaeda. Therefore, I think the White House should come up with a plan that could bring positive results to the President Obama's very first decision as the President of the United States.

Decline in PC Orders Leads to Microsoft Layoffs

Microsoft, the world's largest software company, announced that the company would initiate layoffs of 5000 workers, starting with 1400 job layoffs on Thursday. This was due to a severe decline in sales of personal computer softwares caused by economic uncertainty across the world. The company's second-quarter results show an 11 percent drop in net income, from $4.71 to $4.17 billion, in the period of a year.

Microsoft's chief executive, Steven A. Ballmer, admitted the difficulty the company is going through during a conference call, "we are certainly in the midst of a once-in-a-lifetime set of economic conditions".

In addition, Mr. Ballmer also revealed how the company will react to this economic crisis. According to him, Microsoft believes that it will take a while for the economy to get back on the track and thus the company will invest in opportunities that pose brighter future, rather than making a quick rebound to a current problem.

Mr. Ballmer said, "even as we take out 5,000 jobs, we will also add a few thousand jobs back into areas like search where we continue to see incredible opportunity to do good work".

It seems that Microsoft will depend on its entertainment business, which was prosperous in the second quarter, in order to go over such a difficult economic time. A record of six million Xbox gaming console were sold in the last quarter, securing the Microsoft dominant position in entertainment market.

Mr. Ballmer was still optimistic regarding the long-term position of the company in the technology industry. He insisted, “I don’t think there is any stopping the forward march of this industry or of Microsoft. It is a pause, and there will be renewed strong growth in the technology industry over all and certainly at Microsoft.”

Opinion: Microsoft being the largest software company in one of the most prosperous industry, the layoffs of the company means alot and shows how difficult of an economic time businesses are going through. I agree with Microsoft's plan to investigate causes of such a economic turmoil and promising opportunities rather than making a direct rebound to the current problems. Such a plan will allow the company to discover the underlying causes of its company's downturns and figure out what they can do to survive in the time of depression. Also, I believe Microsoft should invest more in its most prosperous business, entertainment section. For now, entertainment section is the most promising source from which the company can earn money. However, Microsoft should come up with a new entertainment system as there are many other competitive companies, such as Sony and Nintendo, that see the entertainment business as their way out of this turmoil.

Tensions Rise on Korean Peninsula

After the North Korean threat on Saturday, tensions between two Koreas are continuously rising. South Korea deployed more soldiers at the frontier and prohibited its fishermen from approaching the North Korea water as a preparation for a probable naval clash.

The tensions started to rise when the North Korean military declared an "all-out confrontational posture" against the South with an assertion that the country would maintain its "status as a nuclear weapons state". Making North Korea's claim for a nuclear weapons state more realistic and threatening, an American scholar, Selig S. Harrison, said that North Korea officials told him that they had successfully converted plutonium into roughly four or five nuclear bombs. Earlier Saturday, a spokesman for North Korea's Foreign Ministry said, "we can live without normalizing ties with the United States, but we cannot live without a nuclear deterrent".

North Korea's aggression towards the South has been intensified since Lee Myung-Bak became the new President of South Korea a year ago. President Lee declared that he would promote a tougher stance on North Korea. This stance has been criticized that it could destroy a recovered bonding between the two Koreas after 10 years of former president's efforts to assist North Korea financially and economically.

However, what is unusual and worrisome about the North Korea's declaration is the way in which it was delivered. Different from the North's usual method of using the state-controlled media, this time, it was delivered by a uniformed member of the military. The spokesman said, "strong military measures will follow from our revolutionary armed force".

Because the messages of North Korea are often so vague and difficult to perfectly interpret, many analysts are expressing their opinions as to what they think the North Korea's government tries to say through its statements. Some, for example Mr. Harrison, suggested that North Korea could be bluffing to earn a good negotiating position prior to President-elect Barack Obama's inauguration ceremonies. Some analysts said that the declaration of producing nuclear weapons could be an indication that North Korea would not give up its arms although the country had agreed to end its weaponization of nuclear arms in the summit meetings with South Korea, China, the United States, Russia, and Japan in 2005.

Opinion: I also agree with some analysts' suggestions that it is just a tactic to obtain a good negotiating position. However, I think South Korea's government should not consider this as a mere bluff, but it should take serious steps to analyze what really irritated the North Korea's government and find peaceful ways to solve this problem. As a citizen of South Korea, I am deeply worried that my country is confronting a serious conflict that could put it in to a chaotic period during a economic crisis. Meanwhile, I see this as an opportunity for us to finally think about what North Korea really needs and what we can do for them as two Koreas were once a united nation that had glorious history together. Also, with regard to its declaration of "nuclear weapons state", I believe the five countries I mentioned above should meet North Korea and negotiate to find ways to solve this problem that poses an extreme danger. All the countries have to be understanding of North Korea's impoverished society and try their best to meet North Korea's demands.